Brexit Party collapse predicted in new poll as election approaches

28 November 2019, 10:48 | Updated: 28 November 2019, 11:28

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party could see support drop to 3%
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party could see support drop to 3%. Picture: PA
EJ Ward

By EJ Ward

New polling data shows the Brexit Party is set to lose votes as the election grows nearer but their presence in some seats could hit the Tories as they split the Leave vote.

YouGov MRP polling has suggested the Brexit Party could see their share of the vote in the upcoming General Election drop as low as 3%, which would mean the party secures no MPs.

However, the same poll also suggests the Brexit Party’s refusal to stand down in all seats will cause Boris Johnson’s Tory Party to lose eight battleground seats.

Nigel Farage's insistence his candidates stand in eight key Brexit supporting marginals could split the vote enough to allow other parties to secure a victory as Leave voters are torn between the two Brexit supporting parties.

Both party leaders are running campaigns with Brexit in their manifesto
Both party leaders are running campaigns with Brexit in their manifesto. Picture: PA

The key marginals seats identified by YouGov are Weaver Vale, High Peak, Alyn and Deeside, Bury North, Bolton North East, Gower, Sedgefield and Delyn.

In the Bury North constituency, YouGov says the race is too close to call between Labour and the Tories.

In the Greater Manchester constituency, for every single vote, the Brexit party takes from Labour it is taking two from the Conservatives.

The results show if Nigel Farage's party didn't stand and voters backed the same party they voted for in the 2017 election then the Conservative vote share would be increased by 3%, while Labour would only get 2%, meaning the Tories would win.

Three other key marginals, Sedgefield, Bolton North East, and Gower, are areas where Labour currently has a single-point lead, but YouGov says the Brexit party looks to be holding the Conservatives back as eurosceptic voters struggle to pick a party.

Mr Farage has been on the campaign trail in key areas
Mr Farage has been on the campaign trail in key areas. Picture: PA

The Brexit Party saw a surge in polling at the start of November after Boris Johnson was forced to write to the EU and ask for a further extension to the Brexit deadline.

The Brexit Party went up to 11 per cent in a YouGov survey of voting intentions, a surge of four per cent, which saw them within reach of the Lib Dems who were on 16 per cent.

At the time fears were raised the Conservatives could lose voters to the Brexit Party as part of the backlash against the party for failing to secure the UK's exit from the EU and instead vote to make clear their desire to leave the EU.

The former Ukip leader said his new party would contest more than 600 seats, as he revealed a plethora of candidates to the press.

Just weeks later Mr Farage announced he planned not to stand candidates in 317 Conservative seats amid concerns doing so would have let in significant numbers of Liberal Democrats which would have risked a second referendum.

The move saw support haemorrhage from the pro-Leave party as candidates and backers urged the party leader to stand down candidates in Labour marginal seats too.

Key backer Aaron Banks told Reuters that “Brexit is under threat,” he added: “We need to see further moves to stand down candidates in marginal seats they can’t win and go for the 40 or so Labour seats where the Tories (Conservatives) haven’t got a hope."

Leave campaigner Arron Banks has been a key Brexit Party supporter
Leave campaigner Arron Banks has been a key Brexit Party supporter. Picture: PA

With the Brexit Party predicted not to secure any seats at the election, and Boris Johnson pledging to "get Brexit done," is this the collapse of the Brexit Party?

Overall, the seat-by-seat analysis found the Tories would secure a majority of 359 and increase on the 318 seats they won in 2017.

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